On a long enough timeline, there is one thing everyone on earth is going to be forced to acknowledge: Mao Zedong was right.
China must “fully liberalize” its birth-control policy to increase its labor force in the upcoming decades and compete with such countries as the US economically, a paper published by the People’s Bank of China says.
Beijing should pay close attention to the fact that the country’s birth rate is declining, while its population is aging fast, the researchers argued. The research, which was published this week by China’s central bank as part of its working paper series, suggests that the country’s main economic rival, the US, is undergoing “favorable changes” in working population rates, largely through mass immigration.
Based on statistics and forecasts by the United Nations – which might even overestimate China’s reproduction rate, according to the researchers – the report suggests that in the next three decades, China’s population will decrease by some 32 million people. At the same time, US may add 50 million people to its population by 2050.
They’re worried about the mestizos pouring into America?
If these people had any kind of economic value, Mexico would’ve built a wall to keep them in by now.
Furthermore, the researchers warned that China’s labor force is set to shrink, while the US will see an expansion. And unlike China, the US will have the benefit of “skilled immigration.”
While China had 70.6% of its population in the labor force as of 2019, compared with the US rate of 65.2%, that advantage is predicted to drop to 3.2 percentage points from 5.4 percentage points by 2035, the paper said. By 2050, the US will swing to a 1.3 percentage-point advantage over China in the labor-force rate, the authors predicted, adding:
For [China] to narrow the gap with the United States in the past four decades, it relied on cheap labor and huge numbers of people… What will we rely on in the next 30 years? This is worth our thoughts.
The authors argued that China’s government must quickly change its family-planning policies: “Our country must clearly recognize the changes in the situation… firmly seize the precious time window, change concepts, comprehensively implement policies, and respond effectively.” Beijing “must fully liberalize childbirth” allowing “three births and above,” the paper said.
In fact, women should be encouraged to have more babies, the researchers added, calling on both the government and society to create a “good reproductive environment,” improving childbirth, healthcare and school systems.
We can probably assume that this is advice Xi Jinping is going to follow.
People always say “Mao killed X millions” – but he didn’t really kill anyone on purpose. Well, he did kill people on purpose, but not groups of people. The problem was that people tend to starve to death during communist agriculture reforms.
Mao Zedong created a massive baby boom, telling women that they were soldiers, and giving them awards for having as many babies as possible. That was a good idea, it was just a bit too early for it. This led to the well-known and scandalous “one child policy,” which was a bit of an overcorrection, most likely.
Now, Chinese are used to small families, and among single-child millennials, they don’t have a desire to have a lot of kids.
But the difference between America and China is that China is a functional country, and the government can easily incentivize childbirth, and encourage women to get on board with it.
However, these Chinese are clearly overreacting to the threat America poses on a 30-year timescale. America doesn’t have a 30-year future. Policies that are not reversible have been enacted, and the only direction this ship can go is down.
The threat that the United States poses to China is on a 5-year timescale, and relates to the outrageous aggression the country is displaying under the Joe Biden Administration.
If China manages to not get nuked into oblivion in the next few years, then they’re home free, and they can have or not have as many kids as they do or don’t want.
The way things are going, I seriously doubt America’s even gonna exist in 2050